NFL Holds Prediction Markets at Arm’s Length Pending Age, Integrity Rules

The NFL has told prediction market operators exactly what it wants before it will let any of them near an official partnership, and for now, none of the major exchanges qualify. There are no in-stadium ads, no team sponsorship deals and no player endorsements for prediction markets this season, according to Gambling Insider.

The league laid out its concerns in a July letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, flagging risks of market manipulation and insider trading tied to game outcomes. It also pushed for advertising limits, a right to object to specific contracts, and a minimum trading age of 21, the same threshold used across regulated U.S. sports betting.

Novig’s framework and the industry’s reaction

Prediction market operator Novig announced a “Responsible Trading Framework” last month that touches several of the NFL’s stated priorities: a 21+ age floor, self-control tools for users, responsible marketing standards, monitoring for risky trading behaviour, and consumer protections written into customer contracts.

Novig founder Jacob Fortinsky said the framework predates the league’s demands. “Our Responsible Trading framework wasn’t developed in response to the NFL,” he said, adding the company has always required users to be 21 or older, “well before we became a federally regulated exchange.” He called the approach an attempt to “create what we refer to as a race to the top.”

Not everyone in the sector agrees with a 21+ standard. Dean Sisun, co-founder and CEO of ProphetX, argued prediction markets should not automatically inherit gambling-style age rules. “These are fundamentally different instruments than gambling,” he said, questioning why someone can serve in the military or trade options at 18 but not trade on a prediction market until 21.

Other leagues have already made the leap

The NFL’s caution stands apart from other major North American leagues. MLB has an arrangement with Polymarket and a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC. The NHL has struck deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside its own CFTC memorandum, and MLS has a Polymarket tie-up.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently suggested a deal with the NBA could be close, according to comments reported by RotoWire’s Bill Speros. That would leave the NFL as a notable holdout among the top U.S. leagues.

Eric Foote, founder and CEO of VIG Partners and a former Chief Strategy Officer at PointsBet during its NFL partnership, said the league has isolated four or five categories it intends to hold firm on. “Until they get clear direction on most of those, I still see them sitting out through the course of this NFL season or a portion of it,” Foote told Gambling Insider.

Foote noted that skipping an official deal has its own upside for exchanges. Without licensing fees paid by the NFL’s approved sportsbooks, FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics, which combine to pay the league sums in the ten figures, prediction market firms can redirect that spending into customer acquisition instead.

A different picture north of the border

The debate plays out differently in Canada, where regulators have so far kept prediction markets separate from licensed sports and entertainment betting rather than negotiating terms of engagement league by league. Regulated Canadian sportsbooks still operate under provincial rules requiring tools such as deposit limits and self-exclusion for players who want them.

Related: Canadian Regulators Keep Sports and Entertainment Betting Out of Prediction Markets

Related: High Roller’s ROLR Prediction Market Nears 2026 U.S. Launch, CEO Says

Related: US Prediction Market Fight Escalates as Courts, CFTC Clash Over Oversight

For now, the NFL’s list of conditions stands unmet. Exchanges are betting fans will find them anyway, official or not.