Trump Jr. and White House Reportedly Pushed States on Prediction Markets
New York Times reporting says Trump Jr. lobbied GOP attorneys general and the White House briefed North Carolina lawmakers on prediction markets.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by the ON360 newsroom.
Donald Trump Jr. lobbied a room of Republican state attorneys general on behalf of prediction markets earlier this year, while the White House separately briefed North Carolina lawmakers on the federal government’s position toward the sector, according to a New York Times investigation cited by Gambling Insider. The reporting adds a political layer to an already tangled legal fight between prediction-market operators and state regulators across the United States.
In early March, Trump Jr. spoke at a three-day Republican attorneys general retreat in New Orleans. He appeared in a question-and-answer session alongside Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, whose state was among the first to challenge Kalshi’s sports event contracts before Kalshi sued Knudsen in federal court.
Four people familiar with the remarks told the Times that Trump Jr. argued state officials opposing prediction markets were influenced by traditional gambling firms protecting their “monopolies.” He also described the products as federally regulated financial instruments rather than gambling subject to state oversight.
Financial Ties Draw Scrutiny
Trump Jr. has been a strategic adviser to Kalshi since January 2025 and reportedly received about $300,000 in company shares as compensation. He also advises Polymarket, and his firm, 1789 Capital, holds a stake in that company.
A spokesman for Trump Jr. told the Times he “does not interface with the federal government on behalf of any company he invests in or advises.” Kalshi, responding to the Times story, said Trump Jr. “is a fan of the industry” who “provides advice on marketing strategy, but he does not advise on regulatory matters.”
White House Weighed In on North Carolina Bill
The White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs also gave North Carolina lawmakers information on federal prediction-market policy, a spokesman for House Speaker Destin Hall confirmed to the Times. That came as legislators weighed a bill from Democratic Rep. Pricey Harrison that would have folded prediction markets into the state’s gambling laws and barred residents from betting on them. The bill stalled in committee.
The budget that ultimately passed took a different path, imposing a 6 percent tax on prediction markets while allowing CFTC-registered platforms to operate without a state licence. By comparison, sports betting revenue in North Carolina is taxed at 23 percent under the new budget, up from 18 percent.
The Times reported that former state legislator and current Kalshi lobbyist Jim Harrell helped shape that provision in talks with Republican House leadership, and that Kalshi’s input helped secure the lower rate. Kalshi said Harrell’s work reflected standard lobbying practice, arguing the tax structure reflects the fact that “prediction markets and sportsbooks have very different revenue structures.”
North Carolina’s compromise has already surfaced in federal court. Kalshi cited the state’s tax-without-licence framework before the Ninth Circuit in its dispute with Nevada, arguing that state taxation can coexist with exclusive federal oversight. Nevada countered that Kalshi’s own reliance on a state tax undercuts its case against state regulatory authority.
President Trump has publicly backed prediction markets, calling them in May a “new form of Financial Market” and saying it was important to preserve the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over the sector. The new reporting suggests that support has moved from statements into direct outreach to state officials shaping how the industry is taxed and policed.
Related: Nevada Tells Ninth Circuit Kalshi’s North Carolina Tax Argument Backfires
Related: US Prediction Market Fight Escalates as Courts, CFTC Clash Over Oversight
Related: Kalshi’s US Legal Squeeze Tightens as Connecticut Court Rebuffs CFTC Authority
Related: Pennsylvania Bill Would Regulate Prediction Markets Without Taxing or Licensing Them