Josh Allen Tops Polymarket’s NFL MVP Odds as Quarterbacks Dominate
Buffalo's Josh Allen leads Polymarket's NFL MVP futures at 20%, with quarterbacks filling all ten spots on the board after Week 1.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by the ON360 newsroom.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen sits atop the NFL MVP futures market on Polymarket after Week 1, priced at 20 percent (+400) to win the award. Every one of the top ten contenders on the prediction-market platform is a quarterback, according to Polymarket odds cited by Gambling Insider.
The pattern is not new. The last non-quarterback to win NFL MVP was Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, back in 2012.
Allen leads a crowded quarterback field
Allen, 30, led all NFL quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. He opened this year with 334 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and two rushing scores in a 36-31 win over Houston.
Chicago’s Caleb Williams sits second at 17 percent (+488). The former USC Heisman winner led the Bears to an NFC North title last season, then threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns, plus two rushing scores, in a 59-37 rout of Carolina. That game was the highest-scoring Week 1 matchup in NFL history.
Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson ranks third at 14 percent (+614) after an injury-shortened 2025 campaign. He opened this season with 324 passing yards, a passing touchdown, 40 rushing yards and a rushing score, with the Ravens again viewed as Super Bowl contenders.
Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence are tied at 9 percent (+1011) apiece. Burrow, recovered from a turf toe injury, threw for a league-best 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024. Lawrence had a career year in 2025 with 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns, leading the Jaguars to a 13-4 record and an AFC South title, and opened this season with 245 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-10 win over Cleveland.
Brock Purdy, Jaxson Dart and Patrick Mahomes each sit at 6 percent (+1567), with Drake Maye and Jordan Love rounding out the top ten at 5 percent (+1900).
A history of preseason favourites falling short
Preseason MVP prices have a mixed track record. Of the last ten actual winners, only two, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, entered their MVP seasons among the shorter-priced favourites, at +850 and +800 respectively.
Matthew Stafford won at +3500. Matt Ryan won at +7500. Aaron Rodgers took the award twice, once at +1100 and once at +3000. The gap between preseason favourite and eventual winner tends to widen once the season actually starts.
Why the platform matters for Canadian bettors
Polymarket operates as an event-contract exchange rather than a licensed sportsbook, a distinction that continues to draw regulatory scrutiny in the United States. In Ontario, sports bettors wagering on NFL awards do so through operators licensed by iGaming Ontario and regulated by the AGCO, which require tools such as deposit limits and self-exclusion for players who want them.
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly into sports content this year, drawing both bettor interest and regulatory pushback across several U.S. states. The NFL MVP odds board is one more example of that overlap between traditional sports betting markets and the newer prediction-market format.
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